There are many horses in this race, but just the same, many that have never ran on dirt or performed well on dirt - process of elimination is the best way to figure the outcome of the 2011 Kentucky Derby. The track is wet and expected to stay wet, and that will matter. I will get to the horses that only know or prefer grass or synthetic turf in a moment. If you are betting in the Derby try to pick your top six and stay flexible. A few contenders always get scratched at the last minute, so stay flexible. I tend to pick my top six-so last minute exits do not affect my positioning so much.
The favorites right now for the Kentucky Derby are Nehro , Twice the Appeal , Pants on Fire , in that order. Twice the Appeal normally would not be a huge contender, but the jockey, Calvin Borel, former three time Derby winner, (in the last 4 years) sure is. Mucho Macho Man  has also proven himself on dirt, and Dialed In  who is another favorite, because he is coupled with Jockey Julien Leparoux. Comma to the Top  is one I like and Archarcharch  - but he is on the inside and I do not think that is a good position for Archarcharch at all. A lot of people like Soldat  but I am not sure why because dirt tracks are not his bag. Brilliant Speed  is kind of a long shot favorite and I like him.
Picking by Jockeys
If we just picked this race by the Jockey it would be Midnight Interlude  with Victor Espinoza, Twice the Appeal  Calvin Borel, Animal Kingdom  John Velasquez and Dialed in  Jockey Julien Leparoux.
I did not mention 4, 5, 9, 12, 14 and 20. Let's look at them: Stay Thirsty  Decisive Moment , Derby Kitten , Santiva  Shackelford  and Watch Me Go  because they are all long shots for verygood reasons.
Upsets could be Stay Thirsty  and Archarcharch  who is either going to make it or break it on the inside of the tough first gate.
My betting? I select a few ways and then box them, usually on a trifecta.
Performance: Nehro , Mucho Macho Man , Archarcharch , Pants on Fire .
Jockey's: Dialed In  Julien Leparoux, Twice the Appeal  Calvin Borel, Midnight Interlude  with Victor Espinoza, Animal Kingdom  John Velasquez.
Lucky Numbers:  Twice the Appeal,  Stay Thristy  Comma to the Top  Nehro
Like Names: Brilliant Speed [2,] Twice the Appeal , Comma to the Top [6,] Archarcharch 
Click here to see more about the horses http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
Post Derby Results: Animal Kingdom  just proved you can win the Kentucky Derby even if you have never ran on dirt. The beauty of Animal Kingdom was the Jockey was supposed to be Uncle Mo's Jockey. John Velasquez was tired of being scratched at previous Derby's and claimed the 2011 Run for the Roses as his own. My first two performance picks were on target and in order. So no more betting by lucky numbers or cool names for me!